Waukesha South Panthers Start 4-0 For First Time In 13 Years; Town Emotionally Unprepared

WAUKESHA — Waukesha South High School's football team is 4-0 for the first time in 13 years, and by most accounts the community is handling it poorly.

A Nextdoor thread titled "South Football: Let's Be Realistic" opened at 7:12 a.m. Sunday and had reached 214 comments by Monday afternoon, the large majority of them variations on a single prediction. The original poster, who identified only as a resident of the Frame Park area, wrote: "Four wins in a row is statistically impossible to sustain. Week 5 against New Berlin West is where reality sets in." The post has been marked "Helpful" 61 times.

The team, for its part, was not consulted and is reportedly preparing for Friday in the ordinary manner.

The Models

At least three residents have built formal projections for Week 5. The most detailed belongs to Kevin Brandl, 44, of the south side, whose spreadsheet contains nine tabs, including "Worst Case," "Worst Case (Injuries)" and "Worst Case (Refs)." The model projects a South loss by a margin of between 3 and 17 points, with a confidence interval Brandl described as "comfortable."

Asked what the spreadsheet projects in the event of a South win, Brandl said that scenario has its own tab, which he has not populated. "I'm leaving it blank out of respect for the process," he said. "If I fill it in and it doesn't happen, that's on me."

Linda Schoenecker, 58, posted to the same thread that she will not be attending Friday's game because "every time I go, something happens." Asked by another commenter which games she had attended this season, Schoenecker replied that she had attended none, and that this was the point.

"I'm leaving it blank out of respect for the process."

— Kevin Brandl, 44, on the win-scenario tab of his Week 5 spreadsheet

The Numbers

The mood was not improved Monday by sports-radio program "The Fourth Quarter Hour," where analyst Greg Tuchalski told listeners that teams that start 4-0 have a 67 percent historical likelihood of losing by Week 6. Co-host Dana Milkowski noted on air that the figure implied a third of such teams do not lose by Week 6, a point she said "nobody in this town seems to want to discuss."

Reached by phone, Tuchalski could not name the source of the 67 percent figure. "It's a number I've said on the air before and nobody has ever corrected me," he said. He added that he believes it is "in the right neighborhood," and that he would look into it "after Friday."

Community Preparations

Bob Krueger, 72, a retired city Department of Public Works supervisor and a South football follower since the 1970s, rated the 4-0 start 7 out of 10 and said he has not felt this way since 2013. "I remember how that ended," Krueger said. "Mostly because I've thought about it every day since." He declined to say what happened.

At the Piggly Wiggly deli counter on Monday morning, a customer asked how "the boys" were doing and was told "fine, for now" by a line of three people, all of whom nodded. A staff member confirmed the exchange, and said a similar one had occurred four times since Saturday.

Councilman Gary Puchalski said he has drafted a proclamation congratulating the team on its 4-0 start but is holding it until after Friday. "A proclamation is very difficult to un-read into the record," Puchalski said. "I've learned that the hard way, and I won't say which one."

Friday

Kickoff against New Berlin West is set for 7 p.m. Brandl said he plans to attend and will bring the laptop, in case the model needs adjusting in real time.

The Nextdoor thread was locked by a moderator at 214 comments, shortly after one resident asked whether anyone had considered simply watching the game and seeing what happens. The comment received 3 likes and 41 replies, all of them warning that this was exactly how it starts.